Abstract
The current administrative division of Bosnia and Herzegovina was primarily defined by the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995 and has resulted in a unique political structure of the country. This political division shaped the settlement network, leading to ethnic segregation, territorial fragmentation, and the creation of low-population municipalities. These municipalities are mostly characterized by adverse demographic trends, including emigration, low fertility, and population ageing. This research therefore aims to analyze demographic trends in low-population municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina during the period 2013-2023. However, demographic analysis of low-population municipalities is challenging, since these municipalities represent demographic outliers which skew the analysis and potentially mask the actual demographic trends.
For this reason, data smoothing using Empirical Bayes Rates was applied in order to improve data reliability and identify municipalities that deviate significantly from national average demographic trends. The results of the study are relevant for future demographic research in Bosnia and Herzegovina and may also inform case studies and strategic demographic planning at both the national and regional levels.
Keywords: demographic trends, periphery, low-population municipalities, demographic outliers, Empirical Bayes rates, Bosnia and Herzegovina